Haas NewsWire


Haas NewsWire, August 30, 2004





HAAS HEADLINES


Olympic Predictions Hold Up: Economics Affects Athletic Competition

Meghan Busse
Meghan Busse

Two economists, one at Berkeley and one at Dartmouth, used a statistical model to successfully predict the total number of medals given to each country at this year’s Olympic Games in Athens with an overall accuracy rate of 97%, compared to 96% accuracy for the Sydney games in 2000.


Meghan Busse, visiting assistant professor at the Haas School, and co-author Andrew Bernard, professor of international economics at Dartmouth University's Tuck School of Business, have developed a model that draws on population, per capita income, past performance, and a host effect (for the country hosting the Olympics) to determine how many medals a country will win.


Their research shows how much simple economic factors can affect the performance of a non-economic event such as the Olympics. Population matters, the researchers explain, because it gives a country more chances to have an athlete with the extraordinary natural ability necessary to become an Olympic champion. Income per capita matters because countries that are wealthier are more likely to have individuals or organizations that are willing to devote the financial resources necessary to develop Olympic medal contenders.


Their predictions were covered for the second time in an article this morning in the Wall Street Journal, which stated that the model came within three medals of a perfect prediction for 23 of the 34 countries tracked. The US was predicted to win 37 gold medals and actually won 35. Russia was expected to win 29 and ended up with 27.


The US won 103 medals total compared to the 93 predicted, Russia 92 versus 83 predicted, China 63 versus 57 predicted, Germany 48 versus 55 predicted, and Australia 49 versus 54 predicted.


“Overall, we come to the same conclusion that we did after the Sydney games,” said Busse. “No model can predict the future perfectly, but we are impressed by how much of the performance in a mostly non-economic event like the Olympics can be predicted by simple economic factors.”


The original goal of their research was not to predict medal outcomes but to determine what would be a reasonable benchmark against which to measure a country's performance. “With that in mind, US, Russia, and China outperforming our model says that those countries had a particularly good year at the Games,” said Busse. “Germany and Australia had a less good year this time around.”


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Fall Semester Promises Stimulating Special Events at the Haas School

A top brand marketing expert, one of the founders of the micro-credit movement, and thought leaders on how the global economy is impacting US jobs are among the many inspiring speakers to share their expertise at major Haas School events this fall. Here is a preview of these occasions and more.


All events at the Haas School are listed on the school’s events calendar, which can be found at http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/calendar/.



More details and more events, including a special Dean's Lecture, will be announced in Haas NewsWire in the weeks to come.


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Alumni Return to Haas for Homecoming Game and Festivities

The Haas School will be celebrating Homecoming on October 16 with a day of fun and festivities, the centerpiece of which will be the Cal Bears football team facing off the UCLA Bruins in Memorial Stadium at 2:00 p.m., after Dean Tom Campbell offers his pre-election predictions at the Haas School in the morning.


The festivities start with Dean Campbell’s current economic and political assessment from 10:30 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. in the Wells Fargo Room. His talk is one of a number of seminars scheduled around campus where distinguished UC Berkeley faculty will share their expertise with homecoming visitors.


This year’s Haas alumni luncheon features a Mexican fiesta. From 11:30 a.m. to 2:00 p.m. a buffet, beverages, and live mariachi music will set the scene for general festivities and family fun in the courtyard. A special area will be reserved for reunion classes (those ending in 4s and 9s) to catch up with fellow classmates.


In addition, Haas has a reserved block of seats in the general admission “Blue Zone” section at the south end of the stadium for this showdown between Cal and UCLA. October 8 is the deadline to purchase Haas football tickets and to register for the Haas Alumni Luncheon.


For more information on Haas homecoming events, call 510-642-7790. Information and online registration for the luncheon and football game (required) are also available at http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/alumni/homecoming/. For information about UC Berkeley's homecoming and reunion events on October 15 to 17, visit http://homecoming.berkeley.edu/index.html.


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Challenge for Charity Gets a Leg-Up through New Volunteer Service

All 230 incoming full-time MBA students could be seen weeding, pruning, planting, scraping, and painting last Wednesday as they helped spruce up a housing project for 500 formerly homeless families and individuals on the nearby island of Alameda – an introduction to a season of volunteering for Berkeley MBA students.


Their project, part of the full-time MBA orientation activities, did not only beautify the Alameda Point Collaborative and earn the appreciation of its residents, it had the added bonus of giving the students’ annual Challenge for Charity Competition a head start in this year's tally of volunteer hours.


"I think it is a true testament of the Haas School spirit that the first team project for the first-year students involves community service," says Monica Wiese, MBA/MPH 05, and VP of Community Affairs for the MBA Association. 


Every year the Haas School faces stiff competition in the MBA Challenge for Charity (C4C) as our Berkeley MBA students try to volunteer more hours, organize more events, and raise more money for the Special Olympics than five other west coast business schools also in the competition. The school's competitors are Stanford, UCLA, UC Irvine, USC, and the University of Washington.


Through a special agreement with the national Challenge for Charity organization, Berkeley MBA students who volunteer through Hands on Bay Area at organizations aiding women and children will be added to the total for the C4C competition. The event on Alameda was the first one organized for Haas students through Hands on Bay Area.


For more information on all C4C events, visit http://www.challengeforcharity.org.


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New Haas School Photo Archive Available Online


Members of the Haas School community looking for promotional images of the school need look no further than the new web-based Haas School Photo Archive.


Housed at http://groups.haas.berkeley.edu/haas/photos.html, the archive contains eight photos of the school and its environs; four photos of faculty, and an area map that shows the school in relation to regional landmarks. All images are available for download in high- and low- resolution versions.


The archive is available to the general public. No special permissions or reuse fees are necessary if the photos are used to promote the school, but there are limitations on the use of the images. All photographs must be identified as portraying the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley, and must be used in a manner consistent with University of California policy. Commercial use is not permitted without permission of the school and the images are protected by copyright law.


The archive was built by the staff of the Haas Marketing and Communications Office. Questions about the archive should be sent to inquiries@haas.berkeley.edu.


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Publicizing an Event at Haas? A New Guide Provides Answers

Ever wonder how to get an event promoted to the greater UC Berkeley community, listed on the Haas School kiosks, or announced in the Haas NewsWire? These questions and more are answered by the new Guide to Publicity at the Haas School now available online.


This step-by-step guide to Haas events of all shapes and sizes provides not only the pertinent contact information, but also contains suggestions of other publications and web sites to contact based on the size and type of event being planned. The full guide can be found at http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/haas/publicity.html. The form for posting an event on the Haas events calendar can be found at http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/calendar.


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Haas in the News

A study on outsourcing published in June by Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics researchers Ashok Deo Bardhan and Cynthia Kroll was referenced in an August 25 Red Herring story titled "Outsourcing: Arnie's Choice." For full text: http://www.redherring.com/article.aspx?a=10811&hed=Outsourcing%3A+Arnie's+choice#


The San Francisco Chronicle featured former president of Otis Spunkmeyer Cookie Company and professional dancer Linda Rawlings, MBA 85, and her upcoming 50th birthday celebration in an August 25 article titled "For Linda Rawlings, an Extravaganza for Dancers will be the Icing on her Birthday Cake." For full text: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/08/25/DDGVM8D0UN1.DTL


Henry Chesbrough, visiting assistant professor, was quoted in the international version of Newsweek on August 23 in an article titled "Ideas from Thin Air." Chesbrough commented on the challenge for Microsoft of transferring research into the marketplace. For full text: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5709147/site/newsweek/


The Oakland Tribune announced Paul Gertler's appointment as chief economist for the Human Development Network of the World Bank on August 22 in an article titled "UC Professor Gets World Bank Post." Gertler is the faculty director of the Graduate Program in Health Services Management and a professor of Health Services Finance at the Haas School.  For full text: http://www.oaklandtribune.com/Stories/0,1413,82%257E1726%257E2351792,00.html?search=filter


Severin Borenstein, E.T. Grether Professor of Business Administration and Public Policy, commented on California fuel prices in the Orange County Register on August 22 in an article titled "Gasoline Leaving California even as Prices Rise."


Pete Sealey, adjunct professor in the Marketing Group, commented on Google shares being sold to investment bankers in an August 21 San Francisco Chronicle article titled "More Google Stock Bought by Banks." For full text: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2004/08/21/BUGCL8BVP41.DTL


Thomas Davidoff, assistant professor with the Real Estate Group, was quoted in the Contra Costa Times on August 21 in an article titled "Stores' Proximity Irks Officials." Davidoff commented on the short distance between a new Target store in Albany, California, and an existing one in El Cerrito. For full text: http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/cctimes/9461053.htm


Gertler's appointment was announced in the Tri Valley Herald on August 21 in an article titled "UC Berkeley Professor Appointed to World Bank."  For full text: http://www.trivalleyherald.com/Stories/0,1413,86~10671~2349860,00.html#


Borenstein commented on fuel prices in the Sacramento Bee on August 20 in an article titled "Upturn likely in California's Gasoline Prices" For full text: http://www.sacbee.com/content/business/auto/story/10441076p-11360540c.html


On August 20, an opinion piece by Borenstein ran in the San Jose Mercury News titled "Solar Initiative Has a Dark Side." Borenstein commented on the California EPA's "Million Solar Homes Initiative."


Kenneth Rosen, the California State Professor of Real Estate and Urban Economics and chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics, was quoted in the San Francisco Chronicle on August 20 in an article titled "Bay Area Home Sales, Prices Decline in July." For full text: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/08/20/BUGEQ8AS7G43.DTL&type=printable


Sealey discussed digital tracking of advertising on the ITWeb news site August 19 in an article titled "Advertisers Go Digital to Track Ads." Read the full text at http://www.itweb.co.za/sections/business/2004/0408190850.asp?A=HOME&O=FPW.


Rosen commented on the local housing market in an August 19 San Jose Mercury News article titled "Bay Area Home Prices Set Another Record."


Gertler's appointment was announced by the San Francisco Chronicle on August 19 in an article titled "Economist Appointed to World Bank Post. For full text: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/08/19/BAEBDIGEST3.DTL&type=printable


A profile of Dean Tom Campbell ran in Investor's Business Daily on August 16 titled "Real Solutions: Personal Connection Woos Allies."


An Associated Press story citing the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics study by researchers Ashok Deo Bardhan and Cynthia Kroll appeared in numerous publications this month. Kroll was quoted on the number of Silicon Valley jobs vulnerable to outsourcing:



Additionally, Kroll's figures on the number of US service-sector jobs at risk of being outsourced were cited in:



David Teece, Mitsubishi Bank Professor of International Business and Finance, was profiled in several publications:



Meghan Busse, visiting assistant professor, was quoted in the Salt Lake Tribune on August 15 in an article titled "Pair Links Oly Medals to Economics."


Comments made by marketing professor Rashi Glazer on the number of successful businesses in a Transcendental Meditation-minded Iowa town ran in the Washington Post on August 9. The same article also appeared in the Seattle Times on August 10, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on August 15, and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on August 15. For full text visit: http://archives.seattletimes.nwsource.com/cgi-bin/texis.cgi/web/vortex/display?slug=iowa10&date=20040810&query=Rashi+Glazer


The passing of Karen Southwick, MBA 88, was noted on July 27 by CNET News.com, where she served as an executive editor. For full text: http://news.com.com/Journalist+Karen+Southwick+succumbs+to+cancer/2100-1022_3-5285881.html


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Happening at Haas

Berkeley Entrepreneurs Forum: 2004 Overview of Venture Capital and Trends in Financing
September 2
6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.
Arthur Andersen Auditorium
For more information and to register: http://entrepreneurship.berkeley.edu/forum.asp
At this forum, Steve Bengston, managing director of Emerging Services at PricewaterhouseCoopers, will review the latest developments in financing over the past six months. He will be followed by a venture capital panel on the hot sectors and developments in venture valuations and deal terms. Sam Angus, partner, Fenwick & West, is the organizer and moderator of this panel, which includes Jim Glasheen, general partner at Technology Partners and member of the Entrepreneurs Forum's Advisory Council; Jim McLean, MBA 87, partner of ComVentures; and Christopher Schaepe, founding partner of Lightspeed Ventures.


Seminars


INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS WORKSHOP
"The Political Construction of Risk: The Dynamics of Consumer and Environmental Regulation in the EU and the US" by David Vogel, Haas School of Business
Thursday, September 2
4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
Room C325
For more information, contact Anita Stephens at stephens@haas.berkeley.edu.


SHANSBY MARKETING SEMINARTopic to be announced. Speaker: James Heyman
Friday, September 3
4:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.
Room C250
For more information, contact Laura Gardner at lgardner@haas.berkeley.edu.


ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS SEMINAR
Woody Powell, Stanford University
Wednesday, September 8
4:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.
Room C220
For more information, contact Deborah Houy at houy@haas.berkeley.edu.


INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS WORKSHOP
"Admission Impossible?  Self Interest and Affirmative Action" by Erik Eyster, London School of Economics
Thursday, September 9
4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
Room C325
For more information, contact Anita Stephens at stephens@haas.berkeley.edu.


FINANCE SEMINAR
"Accounting for Stock Options" by Jeremy Bulow, Stanford University
Thursday, September 9
4:10 p.m. to 5:40 p.m.
Room C210 Cheit Hall
For more information, contact June Wong at june@haas.berkeley.edu.


SHANSBY MARKETING SEMINAR
"Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice" by Liran Einav, Stanford University
Friday, September 10
4:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.
Room C250
For more information, contact Laura Gardner at lgardner@haas.berkeley.edu.


ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS SEMINAR
"Hot and Cool Dynamics in Emotional Processing" by Ozlem Ayduk, UC Berkeley
Wednesday, September 15
4:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m.
Room C220
For more information, contact Deborah Houy at houy@haas.berkeley.edu.


INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS WORKSHOP
"Detecting Manipulation in US House Elections: 1898-1992" by Jason Snyder, UC Berkeley
Thursday, September 16
4:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m.
Room C325
For more information, contact Anita Stephens at stephens@haas.berkeley.edu.


FINANCE SEMINAR
Topic TBA by Anusha Chari, University of Michigan and visiting at the Haas School
Thursday, September 16
4:10 p.m. to 5:40 p.m.
Room C210 Cheit Hall
For more information, contact June Wong at june@haas.berkeley.edu.


BERKELEY REAL ESTATE SEMINAR
"Household Risks and the Demand for Housing Commitments" by Todd Sinai, Wharton School, visiting the Haas School
Monday, September 20
12:30 p.m.
Room C135
For more information, contact Thomas Randle at randle@haas.berkeley.edu.


Alumni Events


BERKELEY-COLUMBIA EXECUTIVE MBA PROGRAM
Happy Hour in Palo Alto
Thursday, September 2
6:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.
Gordon Biersch, Palo Alto
For more information contact Martha Gerhan at magerhan@mindspring.com.


EAST BAY ALUMNI
An Evening at Woodminster 'Flower Drum Song'
Sunday, September 12
6:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.
Cost: $26 per person, which includes ticket to the performance and pre-show picnic buffet and soft drinks.
Limited to first 30 people.
For more information: http://www.acteva.com/go/eb-alumni
The East Bay Chapter of the Haas Alumni Network invites all alumni and their friends to enjoy a catered cold buffet with fabulous views of the bay in a redwood setting. Then, enjoy the musical 'Flower Drum Song' in the amphitheater under the stars.
For more information contact Marina Gracias, BS 80, MBA 99, at mgracias@yahoo.com or 415-278-4291.


SAN FRANCISCO ALUMNI
Creating a Career Marketing Plan Workshop
Wednesday, September 22
6:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m.
Accenture, One Market Street, 42 Floor, San Francisco. Ask for Evelyn Goodfriend or Emilie Cortes upon arrival.
For more information: www.acteva.com/go/hansf
The cost is $5. Please RSVP at www.acteva.com/go/hansf. This event is limited to first 30 people to register. For more information, please contact Emilie Cortes, MBA 02, at cortes@mba.berkeley.edu.
This is an interactive presentation by Rebecca Zucker and Jordan Stark, principals of Next Step Partners, an executive career development firm, who will help you apply the framework of a business-marketing plan to managing your career.


SAN FRANCISCO ALUMNI
“Two Coasts, Three Countries, All MBAs” Multi-School Bar of the Month
Thursday, September 23
6:30 p.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Kellys Irish Pub, 530 Jackson Street, San Francisco
For more information: www.hansf.com
Haas is hosting a joint bar of the month with Columbia, INSEAD, London School of Business, and MIT to strengthen our network with these other schools.
Contact Andy Szirtes at andras_szirtes@yahoo.com or David Gimpelevich at gimpelev@alumni.haas.org for more information.


ALL ALUMNI
Homecoming Celebration
Saturday, October 16, 2004
10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m.
Former students of the Haas School will reunite for a festive day back on campus. The annual Haas School homecoming kicks off with a special lecture by Dean Tom Campbell on his insights and perspectives on the current economic and political landscape. This session will be followed by a Mexican fiesta luncheon in the courtyard with live music and special activities for kids. Then it is off to Memorial Stadium to watch the Golden Bears play football against UCLA. Join us for a festive autumn day back on campus.
Advanced registration required. The registration deadline is October 8.
For more information, call the Haas School Alumni Relations Office at 510-642-7790 or go to http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/alumni/homecoming.



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The Haas NewsWire is the electronic news weekly for the Haas community published every Monday by the Marketing and Communications Office at the Haas School. Send your news, feedback, and suggestions to haasnews@haas.berkeley.edu.


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