Spring/Summer 2008

In Brief

Tetlock Wins Grawemeyer Award 

Professor Philip Tetlock won the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order for the insights in his book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

In a 20-year study of 27,000 predictions by 284 political experts, Tetlock found that the pundits are often wrong -- a troubling finding because government officials routinely rely on forecasts to make decisions.

Award judges called Tetlock's book "a landmark study that changes our understanding of the way experts perform when they make judgments about world politics." The work was selected from among 50 entries from seven countries. Tetlock received $200,000 as part of the award.


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Professor Philip Tetlock

Professor Philip Tetlock